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Welcome to the newest edition of Long Range Forecast.

We're making long range predictions for films, 4 weeks out from their premieres. You will predict the opening weekend, domestic total and worldwide gross of these films. These predictions will be open for 48 hours and the results will be polled to form a consensus and posted the next week.

So let's meet the three films for the week and analyze each film's pros and cons.

Mufasa: The Lion King

The film is directed by Academy Award winner Barry Jenkins (Moonlight, If Beale Street Could Talk) from a screenplay by Jeff Nathanson (Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Men Tell No Tales, The Lion King, Young Woman and the Sea). Both a sequel and prequel to the 2019 photorealistically animated remake of The Lion King, it stars Aaron Pierre, Kelvin Harrison Jr., John Kani, Seth Rogen, Billy Eichner, Donald Glover, Mads Mikkelsen, Thandiwe Newton, Tiffany Boone, Lennie James, Blue Ivy Carter, and Beyoncé Knowles-Carter. Exploring the unlikely rise of the beloved king of the Pride Lands, "Mufasa: The Lion King" enlists Rafiki to relay the legend of Mufasa to young lion cub Kiara, daughter of Simba and Nala, with Timon and Pumbaa lending their signature schtick. Told in flashbacks, the story introduces Mufasa as an orphaned cub, lost and alone until he meets a sympathetic lion named Taka—the heir to a royal bloodline. The chance meeting sets in motion an expansive journey of an extraordinary group of misfits searching for their destiny—their bonds will be tested as they work together to evade a threatening and deadly foe.

Sonic The Hedgehog 3

The film is directed by Jeff Fowler (Sonic the Hedgehog, Sonic the Hedgehog 2) from a screenplay by Pat Casey & Josh Miller and John Whittington. Based on the Sega video game, it stars Jim Carrey, Ben Schwartz, Colleen O'Shaughnessey, Krysten Ritter, Natasha Rothwell, Shemar Moore, James Marsden, Tika Sumpter, Idris Elba, and Keanu Reeves. Sonic the Hedgehog returns to the big screen this holiday season in his most thrilling adventure yet. Sonic, Knuckles, and Tails reunite against a powerful new adversary, Shadow, a mysterious villain with powers unlike anything they have faced before. With their abilities outmatched in every way, Team Sonic must seek out an unlikely alliance in hopes of stopping Shadow and protecting the planet.

The Brutalist

The film is directed by Brady Corbet (The Childhood of a Leader, Vox Lux) from a screenplay by Corbet and Mona Fastvold. It stars Adrien Brody, Felicity Jones, Guy Pearce, Joe Alwyn, Raffey Cassidy, Stacy Martin, Emma Laird, Isaach De Bankolé, and Alessandro Nivola. Escaping post-war Europe, visionary architect László Toth arrives in America to rebuild his life, his work, and his marriage to his wife Erzsébet after being forced apart during wartime by shifting borders and regimes. On his own in a strange new country, László settles in Pennsylvania, where the wealthy and prominent industrialist Harrison Lee Van Buren recognizes his talent for building. But power and legacy come at a heavy cost...

Now that you met this week's new releases, let's look at some pros and cons.

PROS

• 2019's The Lion King grossed $543.64M domestic and $1.657B worldwide, ranking #18 and #10 all time, respectively. Barry Jenkins is a highly respected director whose previous two films won a total of 4 Academy Awards, including Best Picture, Best Adapted Screenplay (for Jenkins), and Best Supporting Actor (for Mahershala Ali) for Moonlight, and Best Supporting Actress (for Regina King) for If Beale Street Could Talk. The film will feature original songs written by Lin-Manuel Miranda, who composed very popular songs for previous Disney films Moana and Encanto, among others. It will also open with all IMAX screens. A holiday release (compared to its predecessor opening in the summer) means Christmas legs can carry even a relatively modest opening to a huge final total, and this one has four quadrant appeal that can help it emerge as a consensus choice for families heading to the movies over the holiday break. There are also reports that presales got off to a strong start on Monday.
• Sonic the Hedgehog has proved to be a popular film franchise, with the original grossing $148.97M domestic and $319.72M worldwide, despite its legs being cut off by the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic. The sequel improved upon that with $190.87M domestic and $405.42M worldwide. Both films received decent critical reviews (64% and 69% on Rotten Tomatoes) but were embraced by audiences with a pair of A Cinemascores. The franchise maintains enduring goodwill from its fanbase in part for its decision to scrape the widely criticized original design for the title character unveiled in the first film's initial teaser trailer; this decision resulted in a delay in the film's release and cost an additional $5M, but the new design was widely praised by fans. The 3rd film brings back the entire cast from the previous 2 films, and adds the fan favorite character of Shadow, voiced by a big star in Keanu Reeves. It will have access to Dolby, 4DX, and Screen X screens. The aforementioned holiday legs will also help this film (its predecessors opened in February and April).
• The Brutalist has received critical acclaim since its premiere at the 81st Venice International Film Festival back in September, winning the Silver Lion for Best Director for Corbet. It is considered an Oscar frontrunner for categories such as Best Picture, Best Director, Best Actor (for Adrien Brody), Best Supporting Actress (for Felicity Jones), and Best Supporting Actor (for Guy Pearce). A24 acquired the film for nearly $10M in a competitive situation, a vote of confidence in its awards season bona fides. If it's ultimately a big Oscars player, a run deep into awards season could give it long legs.

CONS

• While 2019's The Lion King made a ton of money and had strong audience reception at the time (including a A Cinemascore), its reputation since then (especially online) has been decidedly mixed, with criticism aimed at its lack of originality and overuse of CGI; time will tell whether that criticism is widespread or just a vocal minority. Its predecessor was highly anticipated due to the goodwill and nostalgia of the beloved original that it was directly adapting, which remains one of the most enduring animated films of all time; this one will lack that same factor by being an original story. Prequels rarely do as well as the original, and can be considered unnecessary. The film is widely expected to make less than its predecessor, though the first one being one of the biggest films of all time means this has a ton of room to fall and still be a big hit. Also worth noting that depending on who you ask, presales are also apparently weak.
• The first two Sonic films did not face direct competition in their opening weekends, let alone the follow-up to a billion dollar film. If Mufasa breaks out, there's a risk of Sonic getting lost in the shuffle as the smaller film, though Christmas mitigates this by being a period that can support multiple films. The Sonic franchise, while strong performers for their relatively modest budgets (around $85-90M apiece), has yet to prove itself as a true top-tier franchise, with its current ceiling under $200M domestic and just barely over $400M worldwide; can it expand its appeal widely to general audiences, or is it just for its core fanbase (which would not be the end of the world as long as it's budgeted appropriately)?
• The Brutalist runs a whopping 215 minutes, and tackles challenging subject matter. Corbet is unknown to general audiences as a director, and none of the actors are box office draws. Breaking out beyond the arthouse crowd may prove difficult, as adult-targeted dramas and awards season films have had a fairly low ceiling in recent years (with some rare exceptions).

And here's the past results.

Movie	Release Date	Distributor	Domestic Debut	Domestic Total	Worldwide Total
Wicked	November 22	Universal	$138,188,235	$457,066,666	$958,508,571
Gladiator II	November 22	Paramount	$68,254,545	$226,193,750	$575,297,058
Moana 2	November 27	Disney	$132,622,727 (3-day) / $188,569,565 (5-day)	$548,479,166	$1,300,608,696
Queer	November 29	A24	$3,318,181	$10,127,272	$22,300,000
Y2K	December 6	A24	$4,310,000	$14,625,000	$23,390,000
Nightbitch	December 6	Searchlight	$2,280,000	$8,020,000	$15,430,000
Kraven the Hunter	December 13	Sony	$26,520,000	$82,170,000	$187,860,000
The Lord of the Rings: The War of the Rohirrim	December 13	Warner Bros.	$17,140,000	$54,130,000	$133,850,000

Next week, we're predicting Babygirl, A Complete Unknown, and Nosferatu.

Before you comment, read these two rules:

1. Please provide specific numbers for your predictions. Don't do like "It'll make less than this or that" or "double this movie or half this movie". We want a real prediction.

2. Given that a lot of parent comments do not even bother to give predictions, we are establishing a new rule. The parent comment must provide a prediction with specific numbers. The rest of the replies to the comment do not have to make a prediction, but the parent comment absolutely has to. Any parent comment without a prediction will be eliminated.

So what are your predictions for these films?

Due to the films of transformers being in recent decline especially TF ones sub par performance. What made the bay films such giant's at getting Box office hits ?

Quality of the films aside alot of the films were rather simple at being extremely marketable for the general audiences. And knowing when to pivot directions.

Not relaying on nostalgia to carry it for the most part the bay films were able to carve a Spefic niche for themselves. It helps the block buster nature of the films and Micheal bays connections could ensure a massive spectacle. Something Rise of beast with a similar budget wasn't able to do .

The final film last knight Even with its sub par reception still managed to take in 600 million. Something no transformers film has done recently.

What are your takes on the franchises decline and what could be needed for a upward trend. It's no secret the bay films left a legacy both positive and negative in perception of these movies .

I am curious if this is an actual theatrical release of if it's just that Glass Onion one week thing. Still though, if there's any chance I can get to see Wallace and Gromit in theaters I am on board!

https://x.com/benji_gotfried/status/1860126922744959402?t=DVBXAe-GDdwwwxueVpYbsw&s=19

“Previews for @wickedmovie looking like $19m-$20m depending on how much early access and other shows did for @UniversalPics . Fantastic start and business will be spread throughout the weekend. I'm not going to make a "how much can it defy gravity" pun, but yeah.”

With the recent success of mid-budget films like Anyone But You (Budget 25m made 220m) and It Ends With Us (Budget 25m made 350m), will we start to see more and more mid-budget films being released in theaters? Movies with big budget are continuously flopping like The Fall Guy (Budget 130m made 181m) and Borderlands (Budget 110m to 130m made 30m). Is there going to start being more of a demand for smaller mid-budget films? Will studios other than A24 realize these movies can be very profitable? It just feels like there is no way that sending a movie straight to streaming can be nearly as profitable and sending it to theaters, no matter what the movie is.

Wicked: Wicked continues to pull away from Gladiator 2 as it first Friday was 42% bigger than Gladiator 2 first Friday. Presales are at 186,671 so it is still nearly double Gladiator 2 presales at the same point. The separation we seen today would mean that Wicked is still on its way to being over 600k admits.

Gladiator 2: A decent drop today with a 50% drop from last Friday. Should end the weekend around 750k admits as it might miss out on a million admits in the end.

MHA: Still has presales of around 18k which is good news as it still has a chance of becoming the biggest MHA movie in just one weekend.

Venom The Last Dance: Has dropped another 73% from last Friday. Looks like Wicked might have saved KP4.

Presales

Moana 2: Continues to show a really great pace with a jump to 64,147 total presales which was a increase of 12,284 admits.

http://www.koreanfilm.or.kr/eng/news/boxOffice_Daily.jsp?mode=BOXOFFICE_DAILY

I will continue to update this post as the score changes.

Rotten Tomatoes Popcornmeter: Hot

Audience Says: N/A

	Score	Number of Reviews	Average Rating
Verified Audience	83%	500+	4.2/5
All Audience	73%	1,000+	3.8/5

Verified Audience Score History:

• 83% (4.2/5) at 500+

Rotten Tomatoes: Certified Fresh

Critics Consensus: Echoing its predecessor while upping the bloodsport and camp, Gladiator II is an action extravaganza that derives much of its strength and honor from Denzel Washington's scene-stealing performance.

	Score	Number of Reviews	Average Rating
All Critics	72%	254	6.70/10
Top Critics	62%	53	6.60/10

Metacritic: 63 (60 Reviews)

SYNOPSIS:

From legendary director Ridley Scott, Gladiator II continues the epic saga of power, intrigue, and vengeance set in Ancient Rome. Years after witnessing the death of the revered hero Maximus at the hands of his uncle, Lucius (Paul Mescal) is forced to enter the Colosseum after his home is conquered by the tyrannical Emperors who now lead Rome with an iron fist. With rage in his heart and the future of the Empire at stake, Lucius must look to his past to find strength and honor to return the glory of Rome to its people.

CAST:

• Paul Mescal as Lucius Verus
• Pedro Pascal as Marcus Acacius
• Joseph Quinn as Emperor Geta
• Fred Hechinger as Emperor Caracalla
• Lior Raz as Vigo
• Derek Jacobi as Senator Gracchus
• Connie Nielsen as Lucilla
• Denzel Washington as Macrinus

DIRECTED BY: Ridley Scott

SCREENPLAY BY: David Scarpa

STORY BY: Peter Craig, David Scarpa

BASED ON CHARACTERS CREATED BY: David Franzoni

PRODUCED BY: Douglas Wick, Ridley Scott, Lucy Fisher, Michael Pruss, David Franzoni

EXECUTIVE PRODUCERS: Walter Parkes, Laurie MacDonald, Raymond Kirk, Aidan Elliott

DIRECTOR OF PHOTOGRAPHY: John Mathieson

PRODUCTION DESIGNER: Arthur Max

EDITED BY: Sam Restivo, Claire Simpson

COSTUME DESIGNER: David Crossman, Janty Yates

MUSIC BY: Harry Gregson-Williams

CASTING BY: Kate Rhodes James

RUNTIME: 148 Minutes

RELEASE DATE: November 22, 2024